Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which largely describes why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you desire to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team might be preferred," head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're simply playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the very first Canadian group since Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll probably take a little bit more Oilers money simply because of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I believe we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers should be preferred.


"You don't see rematches too often in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the apparent question: Are these two groups better or worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little even worse than in 2015, particularly when you look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter group than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the second skater and sixth player to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him an opportunity to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might provide it to him here, but that's something to see as the video games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't really standing apart ... there is a real life where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been seen as a weak point on the roster, a credibility that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has actually permitted one or absolutely no objectives in 5 of his previous 7 starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another terrific run in the web might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually informed you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its third consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might lastly reach the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit tougher because more individuals liked Florida, however people are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a chance to go six or seven games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)